Our services are designed to provide Enhanced Intelligence for Decision Markers
Project Assess is a comprehensive capital project evaluation service that provides a fully integrated assessment of a project’s scope, estimated cost, schedule and underlying risk at key business decision points. Project Assess encompasses a unique breadth of expertise from across Predictive Analytics’ key functional areas (e.g., business assessment, engineering, project management, cost estimation, scheduling, risk analysis, finance, and analytics) to develop a comprehensive picture of a project that traces all the way back to the original business plan, design/engineering documents and technical scope.
Through Project Assess, Predictive Analytics can rapidly:
Provide an integrated assessment of key business drivers
Develop an independent estimate of EPC-related costs to build the subject project
Identify gaps from EPC proposals
Quantify overall owner’s costs
Quantify the cost, schedule, and project risks at each major stage gate
Develop technical (e.g., productivity) performance-based cost and schedule scenarios
Generate scenario-based cash flows
Support quantification of desired contingences
Identify finance costs/fees and resulting loan proceeds to support funding of the subject project
Determine potential costs/penalties borne by the owner due to missed targeted operational dates
Facilitate initiation of project performance tracking and threshold breach triggers
Through Project Assess, Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders can proceed with confidence knowing that they have greater intelligence concerning the cost, schedule and risk dynamics of their capital projects.
The initial stage of PROJECT ASSESS conducts discovery on the project to identify what information is available and what additional data can add to our mutual understanding of your project.
For projects in very early stages, this may mean a review of business drivers including financial, business execution, commercial, government and stakeholder influences on the project, as well as the owner’s organizational capability.
From a technical perspective, we will review the technical performance requirements and site environment. For projects that have engineering design specs, this may mean obtaining plot plans, P&ID’s, equipment lists, etc. For existing facilities requiring refurbishment or repair, site visit(s) to conduct physical inspections and/or to assess and test systems may also be required.
Upon obtaining information on the project, Predictive Analytics reviews the data to make sure that all critical content is included. The next step is verifying the values used to generate cost and schedule estimates.
Where possible, detailed take-offs are conducted, in other areas facility sizing design tools are used to provide material and quantity sizing. In all cases, technical SMEs review the resulting scope and crosscheck with prior projects and to the EPC-proposed scope to ensure that the detailed design for the basis of the estimate and schedule is accurate. The result of this effort is an identification of the technical scope and an understanding of the work flows to complete the project activities.
Create Check Estimate
Based on the quality of the underlying data, Predictive Analytics then develops a Class-level estimate in accordance with AACEI best practices. Resulting outputs of the estimate represent details for each facility and the underlying parameters for quantities, bulk material, material and equipment prices, labor, labor rates, and productivity assumptions.
Predictive Analytics will compare these to benchmark information available for similar facilities and locales, as well as compare to any EPC-provided bids/contracts to identify gaps or major differences in assumptions. Technical SME staff will provide insight into viability of the resulting parameters.
Central to Predictive Analytics’ process is developing an integrated assessment of the risks and uncertainties in the technical estimate and schedule assumptions, as well as assessing the potential business risks (commercial structure, markets, security, technical, environmental, cost, schedule, geopolitical, economic, etc.) that may adversely affect the project.
Predictive Analytics’ technical SMEs draw upon their knowledge base and decades of experience to facilitate owner SME interviews and/or workshops that serve to identify links between business and technical activities, develop an integrated picture of project execution risks and assess the “realism” of a project’s cost and schedule assumptions.
Each identified risk is cataloged within the project’s risk register and evaluated to assess its likelihood of occurring, as well as its specific impact on cost and schedule.
After identifying the potential cost and schedule ranges for key project scope assumptions, using our detailed estimating model, Predictive Analytics can quickly generate myriad cash flow scenarios specifically tied to the likelihood of achieving the owner’s desired parameters.
Such scenario analysis provides a deeper understanding of the previously identified areas of risk within the project and provides greater insight into the cost and time impact of key measurable project parameters, as well as an understanding of overall risk appetite and risk capacity.
These integrated risk scenarios enable Predictive Analytics to go one step further and align costs with the project’s schedule so that schedule-driven cash flows and corresponding calculations can be rapidly generated.
Through probabilistic simulation, an integrated cost and schedule range can now be generated at various probability levels for the project. Through evaluation of this output, we help stakeholders:
Understand the balance between overall risk appetite and risk capacity,
Assess potential contingencies to support various levels of risk exposure
Quantify the level of contingency required and identify consumers of the contingency funds.
Through generation of these exposure levels, insights are obtained concerning project-specific risk drivers, the value of implementing risk mitigation activities, overall project funding requirements and project delivery commitments.
Predictive Analytics’ process is unique in that our underlying models and tools allow for rapid generation of cash flows linked to cost and schedule scenarios at various probability levels (e.g., P10, P50, P90, etc.)
Evaluation of the cash-flows produced for each scenario provides a more complete and accurate projection of project performance, project expenses, finance fees, interest expense, and the amount of owner equity required versus debt capital to properly fund construction of the project – both in the aggregate and on a periodic basis. If desired, Predictive Analytics can also estimate business opportunity value impacts to the owner if the project is completed early or late.
Identify Thresholds and Performance Tracking Parameters
The last stage of Predictive Analytics’ Project Assess service is to institute a successful project monitoring and control environment. At Predictive Analytics, we believe project control goes beyond mere diagnostics and must provide Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders with a system of early warning triggers to identify future problems during construction and forecast the end state through operational handover.
The project intelligence obtained through Predictive Analytics’ Project Assess service service provides an informed base-line allowing Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders to be more knowledgeable regarding cost, schedule and critical project-specific performance parameters that must be monitored during business development, procurement and construction. By identifying key thresholds and performance tracking parameters, Project Assess service provides our Client’s with the ability to effectively identify and address issues, before they become major problems.
Once an informed baseline is established that provides Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders with a clear understanding of the cost, schedule and risk associated with a large-scale capital project and the decision is made to proceed with construction, execution of the agreed upon technical development strategy, oversight of that strategy and the ability to make adjustments along the way becomes critical. At this juncture, the execution strategy becomes inextricably linked to project controls – plans form the basis for controls, and controls provide the information that management needs to deliver a successful capital project.
Project Watch is a comprehensive capital project monitoring service that provides fully integrated data gathering, management and analytical processes used to predict, understand and constructively influence the cost and schedule outcomes of large-scale capital projects. Project Watch provides monthly information to Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders throughout the technical construction and operational hand-over stages of a capital project. Project Watch starts with the established baseline and provides a continual, accurate and timely flow of information concerning project performance versus the established baseline, in addition to processes for correcting the situation to bring the project work back into control.
Through Project Watch, Predictive Analytics can:
Assess Project Baseline
Commence Project Initiation/Mobilization
Monitor Performance (EPCM)
Validate Performance (EPCM)
Monitor/Review Draw Costs (EPCM)
Identify Issues/Deviations from Baseline
Forecast Final State of Project
Monthly Status Reporting
Through Project Watch, Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders can build with confidence knowing that they have real time feedback from the jobsite concerning the technical execution of their capital projects.
Assess Project Baseline
Central to managing and controlling a project is to ensure a baseline is in place that covers all aspects of the project, inclusive of efforts beyond the EPC’s contractual statement of work. This enables ongoing monitoring and tracking to detail what has changed from initiation and supports discussions with the EPC and stakeholders when change orders or project modifications (or slips) arise.
Predictive Analytics Project Assess service ensures that an overall baseline for the project is developed that includes all contractual and supporting work items. Through Project Assess, Predictive Analytics identifies the risk level of the project and associated risk exposure to both cost and schedule. This enables Predictive Analytics to establish a risk-adjusted baseline representing the worst-case performance scenario in which all contingency funds will be used. If a Project Assess review has been conducted, we use the resulting information to support the work alignment and key performance parameters for monitoring during construction.
Project initiation/mobilization consists of three major steps. The first step is to establish the personnel, procedures, products, tools and interaction protocol for the Project Watch services. This entails the following items: establish field office and set-up communications procedures with customer staff; establish secure IT and telecommunications infrastructure; establish IT and telecommunications protocol links with EPC; establish information flow procedures from EPC to Predictive Analytics; establish monthly reporting, draw request and approval policies and procedures between EPC, Predictive Analytics and our customer.
The second step is to design and implement a control and tracking system that supports alignment between work organization and contract structure, scheduling, accounting, management reporting, and risk management process areas.
Predictive Analytics will review the areas listed below and identify how they integrate/interact with each other with the resulting output being a data schema to be used in the underlying management control systems to process and track the items, a system description identifying the process and procedures, and establish a management dashboard providing insight into key management areas. The following are the process areas for evaluation:
Planning and Scheduling
Management Reporting and Analysis
Revisions and Data Maintenance
The last step is to initiate the system with the control baseline data. This consists of setting up the tracking ID’s, the IMS, the accounting environment, and the financial tracking environment.
Monitor Performance (EPCM)
During construction, Predictive Analytics’ staff conducts continual reviews of the status of the project with a macro-emphasis on costs, risks, schedule, and technical performance of EPC contractor(s). Core to Predictive Analytics monitoring efforts is the EPC-provided data for work performance activities, which is assembled into an integrated picture, trend performance parameters, and identification of any items that are slipping beyond the baseline or if there are potential substantive change orders on the horizon.
Validate Performance (EPCM)
Through our ECPM activities, Predictive Analytics uses on-site personnel to review the actual performance of reported activities. This allows a calibration of the schedule data to be more representative of the actual work progress, as well as to support validation of invoice/draw requests. Additionally, the onsite staff provide insight into issues that may affect progress, like turnover, ramp-up, logistic issues, weather, or security concerns.
Monitor/Review Draw Requests (EPCM)
Track invoices, confirm work has been completed in accordance with design specifications, review draw requests, and reconcile draws with available budget, etc.
Identify Issues/ Deviations from Baseline
Inevitably, there are discrepancies, performance issues, schedule slips, and/or unwarranted change orders that require customer involvement/approval and ongoing resolution with the EPC contractor(s). Predictive Analytics PROJECT WATCH service identifies such potential issues and provides support, as needed, to resolve any such issues with the EPC as the owner representative.
Forecast State of Project
Using the adjusted schedule data provided through performance validation, performance metrics and trends during performance monitoring, and by incorporating potential technical, commercial, financial and other non-EPC-related risks, an updated risk posture evaluation is conducted to forecast the potential final state of the project and to assess if the risk exposure to the committed levels of time and funding are increasing or decreasing. Indication of potential bottlenecks or areas of risk that drive this exposure are identified and mitigations are discussed with Owner, Financial Stakeholders and as-required, the EPC staff.
Monthly Status Reporting
An ongoing dashboard with high-level financial, schedule, and risk information will be made available. Additionally, a monthly report identifying current status and potential issues will be provided to the customer.
The project intelligence obtained through Predictive Analytics’ Project Watch enables Owners, Operators and Financial Stakeholders to monitor cost, schedule and critical project-specific performance parameters during the procurement and construction phase of large-scale capital projects. Through onsite monitoring of key thresholds and performance tracking parameters, Project Watch provides our Client’s with the ability to effectively identify and address issues, before they become major problems.